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February 12, 2012

BRIAN HOWEY: Why is Obama opening an Indiana office? Autos

Brian Howey The Tribune-Star

On Thursday, the Obama for America campaign opened up a campaign office in Indiana, a state with a century-old love affair with the internal combustion engine. It is a state that any Republican will tell you is certain to return to the “red” Electoral College column next autumn.

There is credence to that line of thought, with a Public Opinion Strategies Poll in December showing President Obama’s approval in Indiana stood at 42 percent, and disapproval at 55 percent; wicked numbers for any incumbent.

So why is the Obama campaign investing assets in a state they have no chance of winning?

Because some believe Indiana isn’t a lost cause. An internal poll for U.S. Rep. Joe Donnelly’s Democratic Senate campaign showed that Obama trailed probable (er, possible) Republican nominee Mitt Romney by just 4 percent. An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll in January revealed that 37 percent of Americans were more optimistic about the economy — the highest level in more than a year and a 7 percent jump from December. Democratic pollster Peter Hart explained, “The psychology about the economic conditions has switched. The old saying is ‘a rising tide lifts all boats’ — then clearly — this economic optimism has clearly lifted Obama’s ratings.”

In January during President Obama’s State of the Union address, he hit on one subject that has everything to do with Indiana: the American auto industry. “On the day I took office, our auto industry was on the verge of collapse,” Obama said. “Some even said we should let it die. With a million jobs at stake, I refused to let that happen. In exchange for help, we demanded responsibility. We got workers and automakers to settle their differences. We got the industry to retool and restructure.”

“Today, General Motors is back on top as the world’s number-one automaker,” Obama said. “Chrysler has grown faster in the U.S. than any major car company. Ford is investing billions in U.S. plants and factories. And together, the entire industry added nearly 160,000 jobs.”

Obama continued, “We bet on American workers. We bet on American ingenuity. And tonight, the American auto industry is back.”

And it is. General Motors has regained its position as the world’s top automaker and its plants are humming in Fort Wayne, Marion and Bedford. Chrysler is hiring off the street in Kokomo.

While there is great Tea Party angst about all the bailouts, a fact worth noting is that the domestic auto bailout from the TARP fund occurred under Republican President George W. Bush.

In December of 2008, I attended a hearing in Indianapolis where economists from the Brookings Institute predicted that a collapse of GM and Chrysler could cost the state 150,000 jobs. Not just at GM and Chrysler, but companies like Cummins and hundreds of auto supplier companies scattered in small towns and large across the state.

The multiplier impact from such a collapse could have been devastating. Not only would toolmakers, engineers, assemblers and molders be jobless, but thousands of restaurants and service businesses would have been devastated. Even foreign automakers in the state such as Honda, Toyota and Subaru would have been negatively impacted, because they draw on the same suppliers as GM, Ford and Chrysler. While Indiana has a troublesome and persistent 9 percent jobless rate today, a collapse of GM and Chrysler would have brought a second Great Depression to Indiana. We easily could have seen the jobless rate double or more.

Indiana Republicans were conspicuous in their indifference. Gov. Mitch Daniels warned of the U.S. government throwing “good money after bad” and said the domestics should emulate the Japanese companies. He later castigated the U.S. Supreme Court for the way it acted on Obama’s forced expedited bankruptcies of GM and Chrysler. Treasurer Richard Mourdock, with Daniels cheering him on, tried to thwart the Chrysler merger with Fiat. Republican candidates up and down the food chain derided the Bush bailout.

When Joe Donnelly showed up at the Chrysler Transmission Plant II gate to campaign just before the 2010 election, many workers whose jobs were saved by the expedited bankruptcy told him they were going to vote Republican because of issues such as guns and federal debt.

Indiana Democrats in the 2010 cycle never raised the auto industry issue and were mauled in the process. President Obama and Vice President Biden came to Kokomo — three weeks after the 2010 elections — to revel in the restructuring and opportunity to come. I asked Donnelly why Democrats didn’t mount a defense, and he could only smile wistfully and say, “That’s a good question. I don’t know.”

That probably won’t happen this year. Donnelly will challenge either Sen. Dick Lugar or Mourdock in the Senate race. He is sure to bring it up. He is sure to remind Hoosiers of their distinct auto heritage, and who was there when the industry was on the verge of collapse.

This is why the Obama campaign is opening up an office in Indiana. It’s still far below the dozens of offices the campaign had across Indiana in 2008 and winning Indiana will be a long shot, just like it was in 2008. But it will lay the groundwork in case the auto industry issue resonates with Hoosiers.

And it should, unless you like Depression.



Brian Howey publishes at www.howeypolitics.com. Contact Howey at bhowey2@gmail.com.

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