New congressional and state legislative districts could play a role in Tuesday’s primary election, but may not give Republicans a “super” majority in the Indiana House by year’s end, political experts say.
The Indiana General Assembly is in charge of redistricting every 10 years, and last year, Republicans controlled the House and Senate that determined new district boundaries, approved by Gov. Mitch Daniels in May 2011.
While Republicans were in charge of redistricting, Brian Vargus, professor of political science at Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis, said he does not think House legislative races will give Republicans as large a majority as they have in the Senate, where Republicans hold a commanding 37-13 advantage.
“I think the House will remain Republican,” Vargus said. “The issue is if they can be quorum proof or not, like the Senate, which is what [Republicans] want. I don’t know if they will make that or not,” Vargus said, pointing down the calendar to the November election.
Vargus said there is no independent data on state legislative districts, “so it is extremely difficult to comment on races exactly, plus the old saying is all politics is local. There are a number of local issues and there could be anything that could happen between now and November. It is very difficult to conjecture on that level.”
Matthew Bergbower, assistant professor of political science at Indiana State University, agreed.
“It is tough to bet on Republican dominance over the next 10 years. I think elections are dictated by waves of Republican successes and Democrat successes. It was 2010 for Republicans while 2008 was a good year for Democrats,” Bergbower said.
Even if a district was drawn along a partisan line, its effect may not last an entire decade, added Marjorie R. Hershey, political science professor at Indiana University.
“Research on congressional redistricting, and I assume the impact should be similar in state legislative districts, shows that partisan redistricting can make a real difference at the margins in the election or two following the redistricting, but that the effect doesn’t last,” Hershey said.
“For example, the legislative Republicans in 1981 drew a very partisan map to favor Republican congressional candidates, but over time, the redistricting didn’t prove to help Indiana Republicans much,” Hershey said. “The reason is that over time, people move across district lines, the national political environment changes, so even the most partisan redistricting tends to have a short half-life,” Hershey said.
For Tuesday’s primary election, Democrats did not post a candidate in 25 of the 100 House Districts and only have contested races in 12 of the remaining 75 districts. Republicans have contested primary races in 29 House districts.
Bergbower suggested districts drawn for the Indiana Senate should be reviewed in the next decade.
“You want districts to fairly represent the state, so can you say with confidence that Indiana is 66 percent Republican and 34 percent Democrat based on the Indiana Senate? If you say no, then you need to be more concerned on how the Indiana Senate has drawn their district lines,” he said.
On congressional districts, Vargus said the redrawn Eighth Congressional District, even with “a few more Democrats added in, is still probably pretty safe for [GOP Rep. Larry] Bucshon unless [Democrat candidate Dave] Crooks smashes through. I don’t think they made significant changes.”
Vargus said he thinks the Ninth Congressional District, which appears more competitive, perhaps better earns the term “bloody” more so than the Eighth District, which has maintained the moniker in past elections.
Bergbower said the Eighth Congressional District now has five counties, instead of three counties, that border the Ohio River. The district now includes Spencer and Perry counties. It also extends to Vermillion County in the north instead of Warren County.
Indiana’s redrawn congressional districts have straight clean lines and include entire counties. “Indianapolis is not even split up into two or three [congressional] districts, but is by and large encompassed in one main district,” Bergbower said.
Reporter Howard Greninger can be reached at (812) 231-4204 or howard.greninger@tribstar.com.
News
Can GOP get ‘super’ majority in House?
Redrawn districts could play role for Republicans in Indiana legislature
- News
-
-
Kindergartner diagnosed with MD treated to a day with the fire department
“He’ll just never forget this day,” Stacey Manley said, a little bit tearfully, as she watched her smiling 6-year-old son Carter sitting happily in the captain’s seat of Fire Engine 2.
-
Casey, Illinois aims for another world record
The town of Casey, Ill., may soon weave its way into the record books as the small town with the most world records. After setting records for the world’s largest wind chimes and the world’s largest golf tee, Casey is now looking to become home to the world’s largest knitting needles and crochet hook.
-
Rose-Hulman projects will promote growth, learning for people with physical challenges
Life changed dramatically for college engineering student Drew Christy on Feb. 22, 2008 when he was involved in an auto accident and suffered a traumatic brain injury.
-
‘500’ gas stations being sold to Speedway LLC
After several decades in business, the area’s familiar “500” gasoline stations and convenience stores will soon be missing from the roadsides of Vigo and Sullivan counties.
-
Terre Haute woman faces 14 charges
A Terre Haute woman faces 14 criminal counts after her arrest Friday on drug-related charges.
-
Two adults injured in ATV accident
Two adults were injured Sunday evening while riding an all-terrain vehicle near Lexington Farms Subdivision off Moyer Drive in southern Vigo County.
-
Vigo schools’ medical claims down 4 percent
The Vigo County School Corp.’s medical claims were about $13 million over the last 12 months, down 4 percent from the prior year, said Diane Titchenell, an Anthem account manager that works with the school district.
-
2013 Government Directory now available
The 2013 Government Directory is now available.
-
Life-Size Ping Pong: Valley pickleball tourney draws large crowd to Brittlebank Park
It’s been described as “ping pong on steroids.”
Some people call it “life-size ping pong where you stand on the table.” -
Boat trip aims to raise awareness about Lewy Body Dementia
In 2013, the Year of the River, it makes sense to link a grand adventure on the Wabash River with a good cause.
-
Legislature had little taste for alcohol bills
When it comes to alcohol, the 2013 legislative session may be marked more by what it didn’t do to boost booze sales than what it did.
-
STATE OF THE STATEHOUSE: Is it regulation that doesn’t make sense or evening the playing field?
I’m not much of a drinker, so I haven’t spent much time thinking about how Indiana’s alcohol laws personally impact me, but that changed last fall when my daughter got married.
-
For Piper: Annual ‘Rush the Punter’ event dedicated to Dixie Bee student who died Wednesday after a short illness
Steve Weatherford’s “Rush the Punter” fundraiser at Fairbanks Park on Saturday was dedicated to a little girl who lost her life unexpectedly to pneumonia.
-
Vigo schools prepare to tighten belts
State funding for the Vigo County School Corp. will remain “pretty flat” for the next two years, said Donna Wilson, chief financial officer.
-
Veterans take to the trees
Cristal Bednar took photos of her husband, Justin, as he laboriously climbed his way up a “Dangle-Duo” to get to a zipline at Indiana State University’s Sycamore Outdoor Center.
-
Property owner seeks halt to Hulman Lake dam project
A Terre Haute property owner is seeking an injunction that would at least temporarily halt the city’s work on the Hulman Lake dam project.
-
Tornado veterans balance preparedness, practicality
Few things in nature are less predictable than a tornado. They can form quickly. They strike weirdly, leveling one building while leaving its neighbor untouched. They can fling a car a half-mile and turn a piece of lumber into a wall-piercing missile.
-
ISU unveils interactive Bayh Family Legacy Wall at school
A who’s who of Indiana Democrats paid tribute to Evan Bayh and several generations of the Bayh family Friday during a dedication of a new interactive display at Indiana State University.
-
Can you smell me now?
A contraband cell phone has been discovered by the Vigo County Jail’s youngest and most unique officer.
-
GIVING BACK: Steve Weatherford buys shoes for kids day before charity run
Terre Haute’s Steve Weatherford, punter for the 2012 Super Bowl champion New York Giants, showed once again his generosity Friday by donating new athletic shoes to more than two dozen Vigo County kids.
-
N.Y. Giants honor Weatherford as ‘Man of the Year’
Dan Tanoos, superintendent of Vigo County schools, remembers the first time he saw Steve Weatherford as a freshman at Terre Haute North Vigo High School.
-
Sunday recital at The Woods
A recital featuring songs from well-known composers is at 7 p.m. Sunday in the Church of the Immaculate Conception at Saint Mary-of-the-Woods.
-
Police investigating rash of car window shootings
Terre Haute Police are investigating a rash of shootings that have shattered car windows throughout the city.
-
City hospitals get passing grades for patient safety
Two Terre Haute hospitals have been ranked for patient safety by an independent organization that assesses safety, quality and affordability of healthcare for Americans.
-
Three from Operation Turn and Burn sentenced in federal court
Three co-conspirators in a Wabash Valley methamphetamine trafficking ring were sentenced this week to several years in federal prison.
-
Skateboarders, BMX bike riders working to improve area of city park they use
The sound of small wheels rolling across smooth concrete fills the air, accented by the clacking noise of a wooden skateboard coming to an instant stop on a metal edge before rolling on again.
-
Indiana State to host 2014 MVC baseball tourney
Build it… and they will come. The Missouri Valley Conference and Indiana State University made that famous line from the movie “Fields Of Dreams” reality Thursday.
-
Overlay recommended for 812 area code
The state agency that represents Hoosier utility customers is calling for a ten-digit solution to southern Indiana’s vanishing supply of 812 area code telephone numbers.
-
Elementary school saddened by student’s death
A 9-year-old Dixie Bee Elementary student died unexpectedly Wednesday evening as the result of pneumonia, said Vigo County Coroner Susan Amos on Thursday.
-
Vermillion CSX crossings undergoing maintenance
CSX maintenance crews are working on railroad crossings between Dana and Chrisman, Ill. this week and next, a CSX official said Thursday.
- More News Headlines
-
Raw: Massive Funnel Clouds in Oklahoma
Raw: Widespread Destruction in Moore, Okla.
Raw: Rescue Workers Search Oklahoma School
Raw: Tornado on the Ground in Oklahoma
Raw: Aftermath of Massive Tornado in Oklahoma
Huge Tornado Kills Dozens Near Oklahoma City
Active Search for Utah Missing Mom Ends
Voters Could Elect LA's First Female Mayor
Raw: Rescuers Pull Tornado Survivors to Safety
Raw: Aerials Show Path of Oklahoma Destruction
Raw: Japan's WWII Atrocities Under Fire in Seoul
Oklahoma Gov: 'Hearts Are Broken' After Tornado
Raw: Aussie Zoo Shows Off White Rhino Calf
Raw: Walking in a Flattened Okla. Neighborhood
Horse Saved From Slaughter, Goes on to Win Big
MLB Hoping for Large Replay Expansion in 2014
Raw: Suspects Butt Dial 911, Lead to Arrest
America's Cup Officials Say Race Will Continue
Pug Life on Display at Wisconsin Festival
Raw: Witness Describes Scene After Okla. Tornado
RAW: Massive tornado strikes Oklahoma
RAW: Xbox One debuts
VIDEO: Teacher reunites mother and son after tornado levels elementary school in Oklahoma City
Jennifer Lawrence Gets Naked and Painted Blue as X-Men's Mystique
Okla. tornado survivor finds dog buried alive under rubble
VIRAL: Baby makes epic soccer goal
Pickler's Dance Moves Cause A Stir
Obama to tornado survivors: The country stands beside you
Reporter Cries Over Devastation
Sneak Peek: 'Modern Family' Says Good Bye
Trailer: 'The Last Stand' Available on Blu-ray Disc, DVD, Digital Download
IWitness Look at Moore, OK Tornado
RAW: Moore, OK tornado touches down near school
Robert Pattinson Moves Out
RAW: Russian dash cam catches car 20 feet in the air
Oklahoma tornado survivor: "Everything is gone"
Khloe Lashes Out at Kim Kardashian's Critics
Couple Argues As Woman's Lover Crawls Out Window
RAW: Brad Paisley Forgets Lyrics To His Own Song
Justin Bieber Gets Booed
