MARK BENNETT: 2010’s economic forecast signals less uneasiness, modestly better times

By Mark Bennett

INDIANAPOLIS — In a pivotal scene in the film “Field of Dreams,” Iowa farmer Ray Kinsella feels unfairly excluded from the fun. He’d risked his land, livelihood and reputation to give ghosts of legendary baseball players a diamond in the middle of his corn crops, where they can magically come back to life, suit up and play.

Ray confronts the ringleader, “Shoeless” Joe Jackson, and sheepishly demands to know “what’s in it for me?”

Disappointed in Ray, Jackson responds, “Is that what this is all about?”

If most of us are honest about our outlook on life after the brutal recession of 2008-09, we’re surely all asking “what’s in it for me?”

A team of economists from the Indiana University Kelley School of Business tried to answer that question, from a variety of angles, Thursday morning during the renowned college’s annual economic forecast.

In a nutshell, you may worry less in 2010 than you have in 2009.

That’s all relative, of course. There’s nowhere to go but up, because this year has been “really, really awful,” as Bill Witte, a lead member of the IU panel and a retired associate professor of economics, put it.

The event’s emcee described Witte and fellow IU economists Rob Neal, Jerry Conover and Kyle Anderson as “fight doctors,” like corner men in boxing, trying to patch up a room full of recession-battered businesspeople sitting in the ironically elegant Columbia Club on Monument Circle. “I feel like I’ve been visited by the ghost of Howard Cosell, and it’s fight night,” the emcee said. “I’d like to know if this economy is going to fight for a few more rounds, or go down for the count.”

Well, apparently, the cans of whoop-[butt] will remain unopened next year. But our economic jabs and hooks may pack a little more punch.

Our jobs may be less precarious. Unemployment in Terre Haute, Indiana, and the nation will remain painfully high, hovering above 9 percent for most of 2010, the panel said. We’re getting familiar with that atmosphere. Nationally, employment has fallen for 22 consecutive months. Even with the recession now, technically, ending, the job market will lag behind others by at least six months. By the time employment joins the recovery, the U.S. economy will have lost 8 million jobs to the Great Recession, Witte predicted.

Indiana, though, has shown signs of hope. After losing jobs faster than most of America earlier this year because of our reliance on the devastated auto manufacturing industry, the state has gained slightly in the past two months, Conover said. Next year, the state could gain 40,000 to 50,000 jobs, a modest but welcome outcome.

Other bleeding portions of our economy may begin healing. Building permits should rise at least 15 percent in 2010, over this year. New housing construction may jump 12 percent, Conover said. Understand, though, that new residential construction statewide is currently down 60 percent from just two years ago. Still, an increase is better than a decline.

If you work in health care, paychecks won’t be as uncertain as the carpenter, retail clerk, factory employee or auto-parts assembler living down the street. Health care comprises 13.6 percent of Indiana jobs, Anderson said, and employment in that field is up 5 percent from 2008.

Jobs as educators in primary, secondary and college levels are up slightly, too. Working for the federal or state government is, generally, a steadier gig than private industry right now.

Interest and mortgage rates may increase slightly, but remain relatively low. Energy costs could climb in 2010, but a return to $4.15-a-gallon gas isn’t anticipated.

Many Hauteans and Hoosiers will try to repair their depleted or broken investments and savings in the year ahead. That means they won’t, yet, return to their free-wheeling, pre-recession spending habits. They’ll continue to think twice about buying washing machines, new cars and hot tubs. They’ll continue to dine at home more often than in a restaurant.

In that way, our 2010 may not look much different than our 2009.

People “are not going to go out and spend money like drunken sailors,” Witte said. “They’re going to be more cautious.”

They may be more cautious, but also a bit less jittery. “It’s going to look better than it has for a couple of years,” Conover said.

As the economists spoke, businesspeople from around the state sat listening beneath sparkling chandeliers in the prestigious Columbia Club. The speakers pried a few smiles and laughs out of the crowd with some gallows humor and one-liners, and later addressed nagging questions from the audience about the value of the dollar, oil prices, the federal stimulus package and deficits, taxes and trade laws.

For most folks, though, the bottom-line question is just like the one asked by Ray Kinsella. If the recession is ending, when it comes to 2010, what’s in it for me? The answer, Neal said, is just that — 2010; your reward is the arrival of a new year, a new era.

“The good news is, we’re still here,” Neal said. “We survived.”

Mark Bennett can be reached at (812) 231-4377 or mark.bennett@tribstar.com.