TERRE HAUTE — Someday, when Sens. John Mellencamp and Tony Stewart have a couple terms under their belts, Indiana might be held in the same regard in Washington as it is now.
Calm down. Mellencamp has shown zero interest in becoming the Democratic candidate for Evan Bayh’s soon-to-be-vacated U.S. Senate seat. (When asked to respond to grassroots Internet pleas for the politically outspoken Mellencamp to run, his publicist, Bob Merlis, told the Tribune-Star by e-mail Thursday, “We’ve asked, and he has not offered a comment of any kind.”) And the mention of Stewart — the “Rushville Rocket” — is just for fun. No chance.
In reality, though, the Hoosier state may never replicate the status it carries through its U.S. senators.
Consider this: The president of the United States placed one of Indiana’s senators, Bayh, a fellow Democrat, on his short list of vice presidential picks in 2008, settling instead on Joe Biden. The same president, Barack Obama, also considers the other Hoosier senator, Richard Lugar, a Republican, a political mentor.
Lugar, in his sixth term, ranks as the most senior Republican in the Senate. In April 2006, Time magazine named him one of America’s Ten Best Senators. Bayh, who announced Monday that he won’t seek a third term, has won five elections for secretary of state, governor (twice) and U.S. senator (twice) as a Democrat in a heavily Republican state. Lugar and Bayh both buck their party more often than most of their colleagues. Bayh has voted with the Democrats only 71.3 percent of the time, less than anyone else. Only five Republican senators backed the GOP less often than Lugar’s 79-percent record.
In a nutshell, they’re respected and renowned for their independence and, well, popularity. The hard-line conservatives and liberals may see America as either red or blue — for us, or against us — but these two Hoosier senators are about as purple, in political terms, as a Minnesota Vikings helmet.
“Indiana has been very lucky in that both of these senators, in the last 12 years, have been willing to cross party lines and vote against issues they see as bad for Indiana, and/or bad for the country in general,” said Andy Downs, director of the Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics.
That luck will soon change.
Bayh announced on Monday that he’s grown weary of angry, partisan gridlock in Congress and won’t seek a third term. Lugar, now 77 years old, will be 80 when his next turn for re-election comes up in November 2012. If he seeks that seventh term, Lugar would be 86 at its conclusion.
When asked if Lugar plans to run again in ’12, his senior adviser on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Andy Fisher, told the Tribune-Star by e-mail from Washington, “Sen. Lugar continues to be focused on the future.” Fisher also noted Lugar’s high approval ratings, and indicated the senator “has laid the groundwork and been fundraising for a 2012 re-election campaign.” Preliminary paperwork has been filed with the Federal Election Commission, he added.
But things can change, as Bayh’s surprise departure proves.
“Dick probably won’t run this go-round,” Brian Vargus, political science professor at IUPUI, predicted by telephone Thursday.
Either way, it’s hard to imagine Indiana enjoying an equal blend of influence and bipartisanship from any future senatorial combo.
The 2010 race for Bayh’s seat could push Indiana closer to the fringes, especially if a Republican wins. Among the Republican possibilities, former Sen. Dan Coats received a lofty 90-percent rating from the American Conservative Union, while Lugar earned a less strident 77.3 rating. (Bayh’s was 22.5.) Another GOP candidate, former 8th District Rep. John Hostettler, earned a 100-percent ACU rating in 2005.
Meanwhile, the Democrat who ousted Hostettler and hopes to replace Bayh, current Rep. Brad Ellsworth, has voted with his party 88.3 percent of the time, according to the Washington Post. That’s a notable record of independence for Ellsworth, who announced Friday he would seek Bayh’s Senate spot. (The party’s Indiana Central Committee will officially choose the Senate candidate before the end of March, because the primary filing deadline elapsed shortly after Bayh’s announcement.) Only 14 of the 261 Democratic House members backed the party less often than Ellsworth.
Of course, seniority typically yields power in the Senate, and any successor to Bayh or Lugar will initially lack that edge. “They’ll sit at the back of the hall, at the end of the table,” Vargus said. “So it gives them a lot less influence, even with their own party.”
Lugar is the Republican leader on the Foreign Relations Committee, and a go-to guy for advice and strategy in Washington. Bayh serves on the Committee on Armed Services, and the Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs, as well as the Select Committee on Intelligence.
Both are known for their low-key style. The shrill shouters in Congress, who’ve grown in numbers, generate lots of Google hits. But they sway few opinions. “I think there is an important difference between being heard, and being influential,” Downs said.
Lugar, for example, “doesn’t yell or scream when he talks,” Downs added, “but he makes a lot of sense.”
For now, compared to the senatorial duos in many other states, Indiana fares pretty well in the making-sense category.
Mark Bennett can be reached at (812) 231-4377 or mark.bennett@tribstar.com.
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