INDIANAPOLIS —
Political forecaster Nate Silver is a rock star in the world of statistical analysis, having earned well-deserved celebrity for his nearly spot-on predictions of how voters in each state would cast their ballots in the 2008 and 2012 presidential and Senate races.
In his new book, “The Signal and the Noise,” he dives into the world of prediction to explain how to distinguish true signals in an atmosphere filled with noisy data. He writes about the poor understanding most of us have about probability and uncertainty, and most strikingly, about how easy it is to mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones.
That leads Silver to write about the “prediction paradox”: A counter-intuitive notion that says the more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the better job we’ll do in forecasting the future.
Silver’s prescription for humility struck a deep chord with me this past week as I worked my way through scores of emails prompted by last column. In that column, I recapped the startlingly dismissive response from Republican leaders in the Statehouse to the surprise victory of Democrat Glenda Ritz in the race for state schools superintendent.
Her upset win over incumbent Tony Bennett caught them — and many of us in the media off-guard. So I asked for column readers who voted for Ritz — especially Republican voters — to help me understand why they cast their vote the way they did.
I’m still making my way through the responses — including from a Parke County school board member — and more are coming in each day, but I wanted to share a glimpse of them here (and will share more in columns to come.) Many were detailed in response, for which I’m grateful: It will help me in coming weeks and months as I report on the education overhaul occurring in Indiana.
There were common themes: Concerns about how private-school vouchers were siphoning money from public schools, widespread scorn for the hard-to-understand A-to-F grades handed out to schools, fears about the fast-and-furious pace of high-stakes testing, and real anger about how teachers and administrators had been treated with what was seen as contempt.
I received a significant number of emails from people who described themselves as stalwart Republicans — people who’d rather eat dirt than vote for a Democrat, but were more than happy to vote for Ritz, a longtime Republican schoolteacher who switched parties to take on Bennett.
Here’s an excerpt from an email from Wilma Wooten, a self-described registered Republican from Parke County, with words that I heard echoed again and again that were directed to GOP Gov.-elect Mike Pence and the Republicans who control the legislature.
“I am a retired public school teacher, current school board member, and now work part-time as a local coordinator in adult education. I voted for Ritz as a way to retire Bennett and slow down the intensity and pace of educational reform in Indiana and to ensure that the reforms are working to the benefit of students and public education,” she wrote. “I voted for Pence to maintain fiscal sanity in Indiana — NOT as an affirmation of all the educational reforms.”
More to come in future columns.
Maureen Hayden is the Indiana Statehouse bureau chief for CNHI, the parent company of the Tribune-Star. She can be reached at maureen.hayden@indianamediagroup.com.
Local & Bistate
STATE OF THE STATEHOUSE: Maybe Nate Silver can explain Ritz’s victory
- Local & Bistate
-
-
Vigo County Jail Log: May 24, 2013
The following individuals were booked into the Vigo County Jail by area law enforcement on Thursday and Friday, based on jail records.
-
Vigo County Jail Log: May 23, 2013
The following individuals were booked into the Vigo County Jail by area law enforcement on Wednesday and Thursday, based on jail records.
-
Relic from another age: Massive find
A mastodon that lived in the Wabash Valley thousands of years ago is making big news today.
-
Game Over: Financial tightening causes VCSC to drop St. Patrick’s from athletic schedule
St. Patrick’s School athletic teams will not have an opportunity to compete against their Vigo County School Corp. middle school counterparts next year.
-
Katelyn Newell finally at home
After nearly five months, 8-year-old Katelyn Newell finally returned home Thursday evening — with a new heart.
-
Indiana State U. Police officer honored with Artz Award
Thursday was a special day for Indiana State University Police Officer Christopher Heleine in multiple ways.
-
City Council considering three for consultant
Three different tax professionals vied Thursday for a chance to become a “financial consultant” to the Terre Haute City Council.
-
Clay County sheriff warns of bank card scam
The Clay County Sheriff’s Department has received information regarding a scam targeting residents, according to a news release from the sheriff’s department.
-
State Police seek help with Sullivan County homicide
Indiana State Police detectives from the Putnamville Post are seeking help from the public with the nearly six-month investigation into the death of 85-year-old Lowell R. Badger, a rural Sullivan County farmer.
-
Man who attacked Vigo deputy arrested
A Terre Haute man accused of attacking a Vigo County sheriff’s deputy earlier this week is facing felony charges in the Vigo County jail.
-
INDOT to bid final 641 phase
The final construction phase of the 641 bypass is scheduled to let for bids on Dec. 11, according to the Indiana Department of Transportation.
-
District office moves north
The Southwest District office of the Purdue Extension service has been moved north from Vincennes to Terre Haute.
-
Day is done…
The sun sets Thursday evening as seen from south of Terre Haute.
-
Morning update: I-5 bridge collapse caused by truck hitting span
The Washington State Patrol chief says the Interstate 5 bridge collapse into the Skagit (SKA'-jiht) River at Mount Vernon was caused by an oversize truck.
-
UPDATE: I-70 lanes in Putnam County now open
The west-bound lanes of Interstate 70 re-opened Thursday evening after being temporarily closed due to a crash near the Greencastle/Cloverdale exit.
-
22-hospital St. Vincent Health cutting jobs
INDIANAPOLIS — One of Indiana’s largest health systems says it’s cutting an undisclosed number of jobs by June 30 because of increasing economic and competitive pressure on the health care industry.
-
Update: Cleanup from overturned truck in Greene County continues
Fuel spillage from the dump truck hauling gravel that overturned this morning in Greene County at Indiana 54 and County Road 725 East near Ridgeport continues to restrict traffic to one lane.
-
17-pound bone found during Vigo flood cleanup
TERRE HAUTE — Crews cleaning up from Wabash River flooding in Vigo County came across a 17-pound bone that they believe might have come from an ancient mastodon.
-
Duke Energy gives $10K to Wabash Valley Red Cross for Vigo flood relief
Duke Energy is giving $10,000 to the Wabash Valley Red Cross chapter for flood relief from this spring’s heavy rains.
-
I-70 Frye Road overpass contract awarded; construction to begin May 28
The Indiana Department of Transportation has announced the Interstate-70 Frye Road overpass contract was awarded to Halverson Construction Co. Inc. from Springfield, Ill., for $317,166.
-
Banks of the Wabash Festival is more than just yearly entertainment
Pioneers think counterintuitively. Where others see widespread apathy, they focus on the possibility for progress. In a way, the 2013 Year of the River celebration began in the 1970s.
-
Planning session aims to better Terre Haute
It’s not yet clear what will come of it, but dozens of community leaders spent the whole day Wednesday trying to develop a plan – or collection of plans – to make Terre Haute “a better community.”
-
Education funding boost won’t benefit all schools
In the budget bill passed by the General Assembly last month, there is more money allocated for K-12 education over the next two years, but that doesn’t mean every school will get more dollars.
- Day of Action job options open
-
Park Board renames land around Memorial Stadium
Land surrounding Indiana State University’s Memorial Stadium on Terre Haute’s east side has been designated as Veterans Memorial Park, following a unanimous vote Wednesday from the Terre Haute Park Board.
-
Deputy suffers minor injury during incident
A Vigo County Sheriff’s deputy received a minor injury to his hand Tuesday night while subduing a drunken driving suspect who fled behind a North Terre Haute business.
-
Man accused of child neglect gets new trial date
An Oct. 15 trial date has been set for a Terre Haute man arrested in November for child neglect after he and his wife allegedly tied up and confined their adopted children in the family home.
-
Police find meth labs, arrest Pierson Township man
Police uncovered two active methamphetamine labs in southeastern Vigo County on Monday, leading to the arrest of a Pierson Township man.
-
New date set for attempted murder trial
A new trial date has been set for a Terre Haute woman charged with attempted murder.
-
Illinois Senate approves sex education bill
SPRINGFIELD, Ill. — A proposal that revamps sex education in Illinois public schools to include information about contraception and sexually transmitted diseases has cleared the state Senate.
- More Local & Bistate Headlines
-
Vigo County Jail Log: May 24, 2013




