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June 10, 2012

Despite Wisconsin recall, predictions tough to make

Vigo GOP chair calls election a ‘victory for fiscal responsibility

Brian Boyce The Tribune-Star

The dust may be settling in Wisconsin, but Hoosiers say the partisan feud sparked over public sector benefits and collective bargaining rights is far from finished.

From party leaders to union organizers, elected officials to academics, those in the trenches seem to agree that Tuesday’s victory by Republican Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker was just one skirmish in a much larger battle of ideologies. And while right-to-work legislation recently passed in Indiana probably won’t be overturned in the immediate future, its opponents no more intend to back down than do its advocates.

Trend toward GOP expected to continue

The Hoosier state is predicted to swing Republican this November from Statehouse to White House, said Matt Bergbower, an Indiana State University professor of political science. He said Walker’s agenda that prompted the recall drive in Wisconsin had similar undertones to that which passed in Indiana under the administration of Republican Gov. Mitch Daniels. Likewise, said Bergbower, the forces who opposed it were similar. Bitterly divided as the two sides are, Republicans seem to have the numerical edge in Indiana, while Tuesday’s recall results offer somewhat mixed analysis for Wisconsin.

“Republicans have been on a roll in Indiana the last two years,” he said, adding that’s unlikely to stop in 2012, but it doesn’t necessarily correlate to the nation as a whole. “Nationally, it’s a tough race for Mitt Romney.”

Some 57 percent of Wisconsin voters chose Walker over Milwaukee’s Democratic Mayor Tom Barrett, and whether they did so for partisan reasons remains a little fuzzy, Bergbower said. Regardless of voters’ motivation, though, Walker’s win was a “small loss for Democrats,” particularly those who hoped a recall would serve as a referendum on the issue of collective bargaining rights for unions.

Bill Treadway, chairman of the Vigo County Republican Party, said that’s exactly what it was.

“It was a clear-cut victory for fiscal responsibility, and I think it’s a clear signal that people are willing to elect people that make strong decisions,” he said, adding fiscal conservatives such as Walker and Daniels enjoy continued support at the polls.

In Indiana, the Daniels administration has kept this state afloat with such ideology, he said, crediting fiscal conservatism with Indiana’s strong financial standing compared to other states.

“Local and state governments just can’t afford to keep spending this money,” he said, emphasizing his party’s resolve to win at all levels this fall.

And workers can’t afford to stand idly by as this agenda goes forward, union leaders say.

Nancy Guyott, president of the Indiana State AFL-CIO, said the Wisconsin decision won’t stand in the way of organized labor’s drive to bring Democratic leaders to power in November. Noting she wasn’t terribly surprised by Walker’s win, she pointed out that according to exit polls, voters there didn’t necessarily agree with the governor’s policies, but they didn’t feel he should be removed from office for implementing them. Meanwhile, the entire endeavor represented a collective force of people standing up against attacks on the working class, she said.

Indiana doesn’t have a mechanism whereby a governor can be recalled, as is the case in states such as Wisconsin and California. Given that Daniels is in his last year as governor and cannot seek re-election, it probably wouldn’t make much sense to attempt that at this point anyway, she said.

“I don’t think we’ve fully evaluated it,” she said of that hypothetical scenario. However, if the opportunity had been available to Hoosiers, it would have made for a number of interesting options, she said.

How that might have played out is pure conjecture, though, and as Bergbower pointed out, Wisconsin Democrats behind the recall effort thought they had strong public support when it came to unions and teachers. Tuesday’s results just didn’t pan out that way, he said.

In the end, shifting demographics have made overall predictions tough to make.

“Unions used to be a good predictor of Democrat vote choice,” he said, explaining that up until the 1960s, political scientists could assume with some accuracy that union members would align themselves with that party. Since the ’60s, however, unions as organizations have continued to support Democrats, but individual members go both ways. The same phenomena has been observed in Roman Catholics, another demographic once used to predict Democratic party affiliation, he said.

Indicators for voting Republican still include being a white man, as well as living in a rural area, he said, adding income is a much trickier factor.

Money matters on multiple levels

State Sen. Tim Skinner, D-Terre Haute, recalled watching the newscasts Tuesday, pondering what the results mean for this state’s Democrats.

“What implications will this have for Indiana?” he posed, speaking to the recently passed right-to-work legislation here, as well as education reform initiated by state Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Bennett. Any chance for Hoosiers repeal right-to-work here will be a long time coming, if possible at all, he said. “To me, obviously it was pretty disappointing.”

Meanwhile, state Rep. Bob Heaton, R-Terre Haute, said the public’s choice to keep Walker in office was “downright refreshing.”

Walker, he said, was voted into office with a plan for fiscal conservatism that he made public. And then, once elected, he actually did what he’d promised, an unusual feat, Heaton observed.

“The people made a strong statement [Tuesday],” he said, adding his own constituents have expressed their support for fiscal principles similar to Walker’s. “People are fed up.”

Nationally and locally, the public is frustrated with the economy and government spending, he said, adding he’s hearing the expressed desire for new leadership “from the top on down.”

Heaton and Skinner both agree that campaign money played a role in the Wisconsin decision, with Walker holding a multimillion-dollar financial advantage over his opponent.

“I think what’s outrageous in this whole thing is the influx of money,” Skinner said, noting that out-of-state Republican activists dumped about $60 million into the fight, overwhelming Barrett’s $5 million budget. “Dumping cash into campaigns is going to be the downfall of our democracy. You can’t deny that money influences elections.”

However, Heaton pointed out that campaign contributions, while necessary, might be tough for local candidates to draw this year, considering the number of high-level contests such as the Indiana governor’s race and the presidential election.

Treadway acknowledged the role out-of-state funds played in the Wisconsin election, but pointed out that both sides brought in their own arsenal of activists. Exit polls indicated the majority of Wisconsin voters had their minds made up earlier in May, thus a good chunk of the advertising dollars were wasted, he said, adding money might help, but it doesn’t rule the day.

“I think John McCain could have spent twice as much as Barack Obama and he still would have gotten beat,” Treadway said, referencing the 2008 presidential election.

Money or no money, candidates have to mobilize their party base, the lawmakers and party chair all agreed.

“You still have to get your base out,” Heaton said, predicting Indiana will go for Romney by good measure, while the national race will be close.

Skinner said the Wisconsin decision sends a ringing message to Indiana Democrats that they can’t just sit back and expect Republicans to lay down. Given the number of citizens concerned about education reform, as well as the impact right-to-work legislation might have on the economy, Skinner said Democrats might think the atmosphere favors their cause, but the party in Wisconsin thought that, too.

“Our voter turnouts are just traditionally so doggone low it’s tough to tell,” he said, dismissing the notion that Walker’s win necessarily means GOP domination in the fall. Many centrist Republicans oppose the extremist moves of officials such as Walker and Daniels, but they end up following party lines when the issues come to a vote in the legislature, Skinner said.

How that will translate in the fall election, he said, is still unknown.

Brian Boyce can be reached at 812-231-4253 or brian.boyce@tribstar.com.

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