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May 7, 2012

Can GOP get ‘super’ majority in House?

Redrawn districts could play role for Republicans in Indiana legislature

Howard Greninger The Tribune-Star

New congressional and state legislative districts could play a role in Tuesday’s primary election, but may not give Republicans a “super” majority in the Indiana House by year’s end, political experts say.

The Indiana General Assembly is in charge of redistricting every 10 years, and last year, Republicans controlled the House and Senate that determined new district boundaries, approved by Gov. Mitch Daniels in May 2011.

While Republicans were in charge of redistricting, Brian Vargus, professor of political science at Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis, said he does not think House legislative races will give Republicans as large a majority as they have in the Senate, where Republicans hold a commanding 37-13 advantage.

“I think the House will remain Republican,” Vargus said. “The issue is if they can be quorum proof or not, like the Senate, which is what [Republicans] want. I don’t know if they will make that or not,” Vargus said, pointing down the calendar to the November election.

Vargus said there is no independent data on state legislative districts, “so it is extremely difficult to comment on races exactly, plus the old saying is all politics is local. There are a number of local issues and there could be anything that could happen between now and November. It is very difficult to conjecture on that level.”

Matthew Bergbower, assistant professor of political science at Indiana State University, agreed.

“It is tough to bet on Republican dominance over the next 10 years. I think elections are dictated by waves of Republican successes and Democrat successes. It was 2010 for Republicans while 2008 was a good year for Democrats,” Bergbower said.

Even if a district was drawn along a partisan line, its effect may not last an entire decade, added Marjorie R. Hershey, political science professor at Indiana University.

“Research on congressional redistricting, and I assume the impact should be similar in state legislative districts, shows that partisan redistricting can make a real difference at the margins in the election or two following the redistricting, but that the effect doesn’t last,” Hershey said.

“For example, the legislative Republicans in 1981 drew a very partisan map to favor Republican congressional candidates, but over time, the redistricting didn’t prove to help Indiana Republicans much,” Hershey said. “The reason is that over time, people move across district lines, the national political environment changes, so even the most partisan redistricting tends to have a short half-life,” Hershey said.

For Tuesday’s primary election, Democrats did not post a candidate in 25 of the 100 House Districts and only have contested races in 12 of the remaining 75 districts. Republicans have contested primary races in 29 House districts.

Bergbower suggested districts drawn for the Indiana Senate should be reviewed in the next decade.

“You want districts to fairly represent the state, so can you say with confidence that Indiana is 66 percent Republican and 34 percent Democrat based on the Indiana Senate? If you say no, then you need to be more concerned on how the Indiana Senate has drawn their district lines,” he said.

On congressional districts, Vargus said the redrawn Eighth Congressional District, even with “a few more Democrats added in, is still probably pretty safe for [GOP Rep. Larry] Bucshon unless [Democrat candidate Dave] Crooks smashes through. I don’t think they made significant changes.”

Vargus said he thinks the Ninth Congressional District, which appears more competitive, perhaps better earns the term “bloody” more so than the Eighth District, which has maintained the moniker in past elections.

Bergbower said the Eighth Congressional District now has five counties, instead of three counties, that border the Ohio River. The district now includes Spencer and Perry counties. It also extends to Vermillion County in the north instead of Warren County.

Indiana’s redrawn congressional districts have straight clean lines and include entire counties. “Indianapolis is not even split up into two or three [congressional] districts, but is by and large encompassed in one main district,” Bergbower said.

Reporter Howard Greninger can be reached at (812) 231-4204 or howard.greninger@tribstar.com.

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