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June 9, 2012

FLASHPOINT: What Wisconsin’s recall election means for Indiana

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The political turmoil in Wisconsin over the past two years mirrors some political debates we have seen in Indiana. Republican-led governments in both states put larger restrictions on labor unions. In Wisconsin, Gov. Scott Walker signed a law that limited the collective bargaining rights of public employees. In Indiana, Gov. Mitch Daniels signed a right-to-work bill that made it illegal for unions to mandate dues from members.

Walker took a huge risk and the unions largely funded an effort to recall him before he could even finish his second year in office. But the plan backfired, and other states are taking notice. Wisconsin Democrats viewed the recall election as a referendum on Walker’s politically motivated approach to union-busting. But Walker defeated his Democratic opponent by 8 percent in a state where polls show Barack Obama beating Mitt Romney by 6 percent.

What does all this mean for Indiana? It means the right-to-work debate is over — Democrats can’t win on it. If Walker had lost, Democrats could hold on to some hope that the labor issue could still resonate with voters. A recall victory for Democrats would have meant that Barack Obama could gain valuable political points by visiting Detroit, talking about the American auto industry “bailout” (a loan that was ultimately paid back with interest) and the hard work of the United Auto Workers. It also would have meant that Indiana’s gubernatorial hopeful John Gregg could galvanize the Democratic base by talking about his opposition to right-to-work.

But that is not going to happen. The tables have turned on labor unions, at least for now. With Walker’s victory, Romney can comfortably talk about teacher unions blocking vital education reforms to the nation’s youth (a statement he made to the Latino Coalition in Washington, D.C.) and Republican gubernatorial candidate Mike Pence can talk about Indiana’s right-to-work legislation as a “victory for economic freedom and Hoosier workers” with little fear of moderate voters retaliating. While unions are not dead, and they will continue to be a funding force for Democrats, the populist message of protecting unions against big business is dead for now. Big business is the job creator for 2012.

So what can Democrats get voters excited about? With economic numbers not being as strong as the nation would hope, and the blame being targeted on Obama, do Democrats have any issue advantages for 2012?

It’s tough in Indiana’s current conservative political environment, but Gregg and U.S. Senate candidate Joe Donnelly will undoubtedly increase their victory chances if they run on women’s issues. It’s difficult for male candidates in their upper 50s to speak eloquently on women’s issues, but their biggest opportunity for electoral gains is with this key group of voters.  

On the national stage, congressional Democrats have been coining the term “war on women” and accusing Republicans of blocking measures to benefit women. Just this week, Senate Republicans blocked a vote that would help ensure women were given equal pay for equal work.

In Indiana, Republicans’ effort to block Medicaid funds to Planned Parenthood has the opportunity to only add to the “war on women” hitting closer to home. Congressman Pence was the chief House sponsor of a failed attempt to ban federal funding for Planned Parenthood in 2011. Gregg and Donnelly should take notice. While their connections with labor may not work in 2012, an even larger electoral force is potentially there to save them.

— Matt Bergbower, Ph.D.

Assistant Professor

of Political Science

Indiana State University

 

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