“It’s simple,” Harry the Hipster tells me. “You guys, and most economists are guys, make this stuff so complicated, so much of this is connected to that, with this exception and that caution, like maybe nobody can understand. You get my drift?”
Harry is no youth, but still a youthful oldster. His duck-tail haircut, all black thanks to Just-for-Men, frames his wrinkles, giving testimony to years of smoking and sunbathing.
“Now you take, for example, those monthly labor force figures. You got November of ’11 as your latest for the states, so we’ll take them. Now I’m going to compare them with November of ’07. You know why?” he asks.
“Because that was when things were still going well,” I answer.
“Bingo, Buster,” he claps me in the shoulder. “So back then we had 209,000 more Hoosiers employed than we have today. And what has happened to those people?”
“Tell me,” I challenge.
“We don’t know,” he grins maliciously. “We don’t know if the 2.9 million Hoosiers holding jobs now were among the 3.1 million with jobs in ’07. It’s likely many were, but we don’t know. We don’t have no reports where we track who was doing what back when and what they are doing now. All we got are numbers from now and from then.”
“And you are contesting these numbers?” I say with defiance.
“No way, José,” he says. “I’ll take the numbers. I just want to bring out what you guys don’t when you talks about them. ’Cause you go on and say that 64 percent or 133,000 became unemployed with the balance (76,000) just disappearing.”
“That’s a lie,” I insist with more vigor than necessary. “We report that 76,000 left the labor force.”
“Wrong!” Harry says. “What you have is a number for November 2011 that is 76,000 fewer than you saw in the same month four years earlier. You don’t know if 200,000 left the labor force while 124,000 entered. All you got is a net figure, a difference between two unknown numbers.
“You guys tell stories without actual facts to back them up. And it’s not just that the public believes you, it’s that you believe your own stories.”
“So what would be your way of telling the story?” I ask.
“Don’t tell no story,” he responds with a double negative that sets my teeth on edge. “Just tell the facts: Indiana was one of 23 states that saw a decline in its labor force and the number of persons employed between November 2007 and 2011. Only seven states had a rise in both their labor force and persons employed … states as different as Texas and Vermont. Another 20 states (plus the District of Columbia) experienced rising labor force numbers despite a fall in the numbers employed.”
“Yes,” I cry in frustration, “but people want to know why.”
“Do you know why?” Harry asks.
“No, but I can make an educated guess,” I reply.
“Yeah,” he smiles that evil smile. “Your guess is workers retire, die or move. You imagine that workers leave some place to go somewhere else for better opportunities. You fall back on immigration when you become desperate for an explanation. But you have no direct evidence.”
“Well, be that as it may,” I say, “but it’s the media that makes us do it. All those reporters asking economists for answers, inviting speculation. We try to provide reasons for what we see based on what we understand. It’s the best anyone can do.”
Morton Marcus is an independent economist, speaker, and writer formerly with IU’s Kelley School of Business.
Business
MORTON MARCUS: Trying to provide explanations based on what we understand
- Business
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- RESTAURANT INSPECTIONS: May 21, 2012
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EYE ON THE PIE: Use to be close tie between output, employment
Crusty Crawford joined our lunch table with a pronouncement. “We’ve always assumed a close tie between output and employment,” he said. No one responded.
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Employer opinions sought on students
A joint venture between Ready Indiana and the Indiana Department of Education is seeking employer input that will impact how Hoosier high school students are equipped for the workforce.
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Carlisle prison marks 20th anniversary
2012 marks the 20th year of service for the Wabash Valley Correctional Facility, going on line with its first offenders Dec. 10, 1992.
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SOCIAL SECURITY: Why young workers should care about Social Security
Summer will be here before we know it.
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BUSINESS CENTS: Does your staff understand pricing?
Many companies feel as though their staff will follow instructions and implement price strategies as instructed.
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Valley Child Development Center receives grant
Valley Child Development Center has been awarded a $5,000 grant from the Terre Haute Day Nursery Foundation through the Wabash Valley Community Foundation.
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Exec offers advice on becoming startup entrepreneur
Sam Clemens, chief product officer of Cambridge, Mass., startup company Insight Squared, gave Rose-Hulman Institute of Technology students insight on how to develop a startup business.
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Newsmakers: May 20, 2012
Leland Phipps, family practice physician at Paris Community Hospital/Family Medical Center, has been re-elected to membership with the American Academy of Family Physicians.
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Alumna to serve as VP for Rose-Hulman Ventures
Rose-Hulman Institute of Technology alumna Elizabeth M. Hagerman is returning to her alma mater to serve as vice president for Rose-Hulman Ventures, the institute’s successful innovation space that has spawned careers and entrepreneurial enterprises throughout Indiana.
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Summer Sidewalk Sale set
Marshall Main Street’s Downtown Summer Sidewalk Sale is planned from 8 a.m. to 2 p.m. June 9.
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Oil drops to lowest level in 6 months
The price of oil dropped to a six-month low Tuesday on concern that economic uncertainty in Europe could hurt demand for crude.
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Adidas initiative: ISU students develop business improvement process at facility
As Indiana State University students cruised Interstate 70 on Friday afternoons from Terre Haute to Indianapolis, they were looking forward to reaching their destination.
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BUSINESS BRIEFLY: May 13, 2012
An evening of networking and education for Clark, Crawford and Edgar counties regarding branding, marketing and tourism development opportunities is planned for 6:30 p.m. May 21 at the Heath Museum on the square in downtown Robinson.
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Wendy’s partners with Riley Hospital
For just $2, customers at participating Wendy’s restaurants in the Evansville/Terre Haute area can get free Jr. Frosty desserts through Dec. 31 while supporting Riley Hospital for Children at Indiana University Health.
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Marshall Chamber to stage annual golf outing
The Marshall (Ill.) Chamber of Commerce invites golfers to its annual golf outing scheduled for June 8 at the Marshall Golf Course.
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ON THE MOVE: May 13, 2012
McKenze Rogers has joined Williams Randall as an account supervisor.
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Seminar teaches seniors to fight fraud
The Federal Trade Commission estimates that 25 million Americans are victims of consumer fraud each year.
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EYE ON THE PIE: Economic tools for consumers, workers, business owners, officials
My friend is a carpenter. He has two heavy boxes of tools and several other containers with stuff.
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SOCIAL SECURITY: Potential Medicare savings for mom
Given the current economic climate, buying a nice gift for Mother’s Day may be more difficult than in years past.
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‘Best Places to Work’ honored at banquet
Companies raising the bar with their workplace practices were recognized on May 3 at the Indiana Roof Ballroom by the Indiana Chamber of Commerce.
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NEWSMAKERS: May 13, 2012
Susi Willis, CPA and partner in Larsson Woodyard & Henson, LLP, was recently presented with the Distinguished Service Award by the Indiana CPA Society at its annual CPA Celebration at the Indiana Roof Ballroom in Indianapolis.
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Indiana Rail Road wins Family-Friendly Award
The Indiana Rail Road Co. has won the Terre Haute Chamber of Commerce’s “Family-Friendly Business Award” for 2012 based on the company’s highly successful employee wellness program.
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Government cuts summer gasoline price forecast
The government says gasoline will be cheaper this summer than previously expected thanks to a drop in the price of oil.
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Mall operator becomes biggest real estate company
The nation’s largest shopping mall operator is now also the country’s largest real estate company.
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Dealership to celebrate first year
The 500 Automotive Group in Clinton will celebrate its first year in business with an big birthday bash at the dealership on Friday and Saturday.
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EYE ON THE PIE: Compensation levels did not cause the recession
America is still fascinated with “The Price is Right.”
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Old National begins year with strong first quarter
Old National Bancorp reported 1st quarter net income of $21.7 million, or $0.23 per share.
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Enroll in disaster preparedness class
The University of Illinois Extension is offering a disaster preparedness course on May 23 for Clark, Crawford and Edgar county businesses called Ready Business.
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Newsmakers: May 6, 2012
• Dr. Haytham Mansour
• Terre Haute Regional Hospital
- More Business Headlines
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Ex-Rutgers Student Gets 30 Days in Webcam Case
Remains of Veterans Found in Basement Are Buried
White House Cautiously Optimistic on Iran
Joplin Marches to 'Remember' Tornado Victims
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Mike Posner Talks Sneakers: Bamboozle 2012
Howard Stern Makes Kid Cry on AGT
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Child locked in washing machine after father put him there
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'PLL' First Look Clip!
Fired for being 'too hot'
Ashley Olsen is a Bikini Babe
'Part of Me' Details 'Bumpy' Marriage, Says Katy
Music downloader owes nearly $700K in fines
Kardashian Sisters Pose in Lingerie
Raw Video: Man Saved After Niagara Falls Plunge
